How Prediction Markets Actually Work

The basics

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of future events. Each market has a question — like "Will Bitcoin reach $100K by December?" — and you can buy YES or NO shares.

How prices work

Prices reflect the collective probability estimate. If YES shares cost 0.70 PP, the market thinks there's roughly a 70% chance the event happens. If you think the real probability is higher, you buy YES. If lower, you buy NO.

Making your first trade

Browse our markets, find one you have an opinion on, and place a trade. Start small — even 10 PP trades will help you learn the mechanics. Track your positions on your dashboard and watch your accuracy improve over time.