Will the S&P 500 close above 6000 by June 30, 2025?
Resolves YES if the S&P 500 index closes at or above 6000.00 on any trading day before June 30, 2025, 23:59:59 UTC.
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?
This market resolves YES if Bitcoin (BTC) trades at or above $100,000 USD on any major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) before December 31, 2025, 23:59:59 UTC.
Will Ethereum transition to full sharding by end of 2025?
This market resolves YES if the Ethereum network successfully implements full data sharding (Danksharding or equivalent) on mainnet before December 31, 2025.
Will AI surpass human performance in math olympiads by 2026?
Resolves YES if an AI system scores higher than the gold medal threshold at the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) before January 1, 2026.
Will Lionel Messi win another Ballon d'Or in 2025?
Resolves YES if Lionel Messi wins the Ballon d'Or award for the 2025 season.
Will SpaceX successfully land humans on Mars by 2030?
This market resolves YES if SpaceX successfully lands at least one human on the surface of Mars and they survive the landing before January 1, 2030.
Will global temperature rise exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2025?
This market resolves YES if any reputable climate organization (NOAA, NASA, WMO) reports that global average temperatures have risen 1.5°C or more above pre-industrial levels by December 31, 2025.
Will a major film studio release an AI-directed movie in 2025?
Resolves YES if a major studio (Warner Bros, Disney, Universal, Sony, Paramount) releases a feature film where the primary director credit goes to an AI system.