Will US Christmas-season retail sales grow at least 0.5% in the January 15 report?

Question

This market will resolve YES if US Census Bureau reports that the advance estimate of total US retail and food-services sales, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, expressed as its month-on-month percentage change for December 2026 is at least +0.5% in the first official publication covering that reference month, scheduled for January 15, 2027. A published +0.5% qualifies; +0.4%, zero or a decline resolves NO. The threshold concerns December against November,

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 56%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 44%.