Will Justice Samuel Alito retire from the U.S. Supreme Court before 2027?

Question

This market resolves to YES if Samuel Alito formally retires, resigns or otherwise voluntarily leaves his position as an Associate Justice of the United States Supreme Court before January 1, 2027, at 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

A public announcement of a future retirement will qualify only if Alito states that his departure will become effective before the deadline. If he announces before the deadline that he will retire on or after January 1, 2027, this market resolves

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 81%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 19%.