Will NOAA’s first 2027 Atlantic outlook favour an above-normal hurricane season?

Question

This market will resolve YES if NOAA’s first official Atlantic hurricane-season outlook labelled 2027 assigns the above-normal category a strictly higher probability than each of the near-normal and below-normal categories.

The event is publication of the initial outlook, not the actual number of storms or whether a hurricane hits the United States. “Above-normal” must lead both other categories. It need not exceed 50%, but a tie for the highest probability is not enough. Use the Atlantic basin

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 61%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 39%.