Will US unemployment reach 4.5% in the April 2 report?

Question

This market will resolve YES if US Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the seasonally adjusted civilian unemployment rate for people aged sixteen and over, the national U-3 rate in the household survey for March 2027 is at least 4.5% in the first official publication covering that reference month, scheduled for April 2, 2027. Exactly 4.5% qualifies. A headline rate of 4.4% or less resolves NO.

The statistic must describe March 2027. The calendar month in which a delayed announcement eventua

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 63%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 37%.