Will the WMO put the chance of 2027–2031 averaging above 1.5°C at 80% or higher?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the first 2027 edition of the World Meteorological Organization's Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update assigns a probability of at least 80 percent to the average global near-surface temperature across 2027–2031 exceeding 1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Exactly 80 percent qualifies. The temperature threshold is strictly above 1.5°C, following the named WMO probability measure.

This question concerns the mean of all five years together. It does not concern

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 64%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 36%.