Will Sheinbaum’s Morena–PT–PVEM bloc win a two-thirds majority in Mexico’s June 6 election?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the final official allocation from Mexico’s federal Chamber of Deputies election on June 6, 2027 awards at least 334 of the Chamber’s 500 seats in total to Morena, the Partido del Trabajo and the Partido Verde Ecologista de México. This is the supermajority threshold for the fixed 500-seat chamber, not a majority of legislators attending a particular parliamentary vote. Sheinbaum identifies the current governing bloc; she does not need to stand as a congressional

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 56%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 44%.