Will the Federal Reserve raise its policy rate at the January 27, 2027 meeting?

Question

This market resolves YES if the FOMC’s statement for its January 26–27, 2027 scheduled meeting sets the upper bound of the federal funds target range strictly above the upper bound in force immediately before that meeting’s decision. Any positive increase qualifies; maintaining or reducing that bound resolves NO. A technical change to interest on reserve balances, a discount-rate adjustment or an increase projected in a dot plot does not count. An emergency rate move made before this meeting bec

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 74%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 26%.