Will U.S. core PCE inflation rise by more than 0.2% in July 2026?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased by strictly more than 0.2% month-over-month in July 2026, using the figure displayed to one decimal place in the initially published Personal Income and Outlays release.

For avoidance of doubt, a reported monthly increase of 0.3% or greater will resolve YES. A reported increase of exactly 0.2% or less will resolve NO.

Only the s

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 67%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 33%.