Will Giacometti’s Tête crâne fetch at least €4 million on October 23?

Question

This market will resolve YES if Sotheby's reports a final auction sale price of at least EUR 4,000,000 for Alberto Giacometti's Tête crâne, catalogued as lot 204 in the Modernités auction scheduled in Paris for October 23, 2026. The threshold is inclusive: an officially reported amount exactly equal to it qualifies. The covered object is the specific catalogue lot, not any other work by the artist or an aggregate of their sales.

The controlling amount is Sotheby's published final result includi

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 57%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 43%.