Will the ECB cut its deposit facility rate on December 17, 2026?

Question

This market resolves to “Yes” if the deposit facility rate announced by the European Central Bank on December 17, 2026, is lower than the rate in force immediately before that decision.

Any reduction qualifies, irrespective of size.

An unchanged rate or an increase resolves the market to “No.”

Changes to the main refinancing operations rate or marginal lending facility rate do not independently qualify unless the deposit facility rate is also reduced.

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 54%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 46%.