Will New Zealand’s under-16 social media bill pass its first reading before the November 7 election?

Question

This market will resolve YES if… New Zealand’s House of Representatives formally approves the first reading of the bill introduced or formally sponsored by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, the National Party or the New Zealand Government whose principal purpose is to prohibit or restrict access to designated social-media platforms for people under 16 years of age, before polling begins in the November 7, 2026 New Zealand general election.

Approval requires the House to record that the bill has

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 74%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 26%.