Will November’s CITES meeting recommend a wildlife-trade suspension against Mexico over the vaquita crisis?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the CITES Standing Committee at its eighty-first meeting in Geneva, scheduled for November 2–6, 2026, formally recommends suspension of commercial trade with Mexico in one or more CITES-listed species because of shortcomings in its totoaba and vaquita compliance programme. The suspension must be adopted by the committee, not merely proposed by an observer or the Secretariat.

An immediate suspension qualifies. A conditional recommendation also qualifies only if it

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 72%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 28%.