Will Japan’s MMX successfully enter Mars orbit during its August 2027 arrival campaign?

Question

This market will resolve YES if JAXA confirms that its Martian Moons eXploration spacecraft, MMX, has successfully entered a gravitationally bound orbit around Mars during the arrival campaign currently scheduled for August 2027. The qualifying milestone is Mars orbital capture, not the spacecraft’s launch, departure from Earth, first photograph of Mars, subsequent Phobos rendezvous or collection of a sample. A flyby trajectory that leaves the spacecraft unbound to Mars does not qualify.

The ca

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 78%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 22%.