Will Trump keep the pause on direct US strikes against Iran through election day?

Question

This market will resolve YES if no qualifying United States strike against Iranian land territory occurs between the October 8, 2026 announcement of the election-linked pause and November 3, 2026 at 23:59 New York time. A confirmed qualifying strike anywhere in that interval resolves NO, including an attack during election day. The election result and any change in control of Congress are irrelevant.

For this contract, a qualifying strike is an American-initiated aerial bombing, air-launched mi

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 83%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 17%.