Will U.S. core PCE inflation be above 2.5% YoY in September 2026?

Question

This market resolves YES if the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, excluding food and energy, shows a year-over-year increase strictly greater than 2.5% for September 2026, according to the initial Personal Income and Outlays release published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

This market resolves NO if the initially reported year-over-year Core PCE inflation rate is 2.5% or lower.

Only the initially published September 2026 year-over-year Core PCE figure will determine

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 54%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 46%.