Will Amgen’s monthly MariTide reach 20% weight loss in MARITIME-1?

Question

This market will resolve YES if Amgen reports at least 20.0% mean body-weight reduction from baseline at week 72 in at least one prespecified MariTide dose arm of MARITIME-1, NCT06858839, using the efficacy estimand assuming adherence to treatment. The population is adults with obesity or overweight without type 2 diabetes. Exactly 20.0% qualifies; a 20% placebo-adjusted relative improvement in another metric does not.

A qualifying value must describe an entire randomised dose arm, not the best

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 58%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 42%.