Will Trump’s Russian-diesel waiver remain in force beyond its April 7 expiry?

Question

This market will resolve YES if, at 00:02 Eastern Daylight Time on April 7, 2027, a legally operative general authorization continues to permit the Russian-origin diesel transactions covered by paragraph(a) of OFAC General License 135 after that license's original expiration. The original document ends its authorization at 00:01 EDT that day. The one-minute-later observation is deliberate: an authorization that expires exactly at the original deadline is not sufficient.

An amendment extending G

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 52%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 48%.