Will ESA ministers authorise a European crew-transport development programme at the December 15 Rome meeting?

Question

This market will resolve YES if ESA member-state ministers formally authorise a development programme for a European system capable of transporting astronauts to low Earth orbit, as a decision of the Intermediate Ministerial Meeting scheduled in Rome for 15 December 2026. The decision must permit hardware or integrated-system development beyond feasibility studies and identify funding, subscribed contributions or an authorised funding envelope.

A declaration supporting autonomy, commissioning a

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 62%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 38%.