Will Gaia DR4 reveal a new dormant black hole weighing at least 50 Suns?

Question

This market will resolve YES if an official Gaia Collaboration paper accompanying Data Release 4 identifies a previously unannounced dormant black-hole companion in a Milky Way stellar binary with a best-fit dynamically measured mass of at least 50 solar masses. DR4 is expected in December 2026. The object must be described as a black-hole discovery rather than merely an unresolved candidate that could instead be a normal star or multiple-star system.

Use the central mass estimate in the offici

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 72%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 28%.