Will November 2026 be the world’s warmest November in Copernicus records?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the Copernicus Climate Change Service identifies November 2026 as the single warmest November in its global ERA 5 surface-air-temperature record. The comparison is between full November monthly global means, not individual days, land-only temperatures, sea-surface temperatures, Europe or the annual average. The relevant observation period is November 1–30,2026.

An explicit first-place statement in the official monthly bulletin qualifies. If the bulletin provides

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 58%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 42%.