Will New York's First Department vacate any count of Trump's hush-money conviction in 2026?

Question

This market resolves YES if the New York Supreme Court Appellate Division, First Department issues a decision during 2026 that vacates, reverses or dismisses at least one of the 34 falsifying-business-records counts on which Donald Trump was convicted in People v. Trump. The court need not erase the entire judgment: relief on a single count is enough. A remand for a new trial on one or more counts qualifies only if the existing conviction on those counts is vacated. Reducing a fine, altering col

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 71%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 29%.