Will AfD receive at least 42% of the second votes in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?

Question

This market will resolve YES if Alternative für Deutschland, identified as AfD in the official result, receives at least 42.0000% of all valid second votes, or Zweitstimmen, in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election.

The qualifying election is the state parliamentary election scheduled for September 6, 2026. Only the statewide Zweitstimme result officially attributed to AfD by the State Returning Officer of Saxony-Anhalt will count.

The percentage will be calculated as:

valid AfD second vote

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 52%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 48%.