Will the PP retain an absolute majority in Madrid’s May 2027 regional election?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the Partido Popular’s official electoral list is allocated strictly more than half of all seats in the Madrid regional Assembly at the ordinary May 2027 regional election.

Compute the majority from the Assembly size fixed in the official election call: floor(total seats/2)+1. Do not assume the previous 135-seat Assembly or hard-code 68 seats. Compare awarded seats, not vote share, a PP–Vox bloc or the identity of the eventual regional president. Votes or seats of

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 71%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 29%.