Will 2026 be the warmest calendar year in the Copernicus ERA5 record?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the condition below is satisfied according to the designated source.

YES

The first complete Copernicus annual bulletin ranks 2026 alone as the warmest calendar year in ERA5.

NO

Another year is warmer, or 2026 only ties for warmest.

Special cases

Official corrections published before Problyx resolution control. If the event is cancelled and not completed within 30 days, cancel the market.

Primary resolution source

https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-bulle

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 57%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 43%.