Will a woman win the 2026 National Book Award for Fiction?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the condition in the YES section below is satisfied according to the official source, event, measurement and deadline written in this contract.

YES

YES if the National Book Foundation names at least one woman as the winning author in Fiction.

NO

NO if the sole winning author is a man. For co-authored winners, at least one woman is sufficient for YES.

Special cases

If the event is cancelled or no official result is published, the market will be cancelled. A p

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 61%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 39%.