Will Antarctic sea ice set a new record-low annual maximum in 2026?

Question

This market will resolve YES if NSIDC’s final 2026 statement says the Antarctic winter maximum was lower than every prior annual maximum in its satellite record.  Use the NSIDC Sea Ice Index annual maximum, not a selected daily anomaly.

The market resolves NO if the maximum equals or exceeds the previous record-low maximum or NSIDC does not designate a new record.  Provisional readings cannot settle. Corrections in the season summary through December 31 control; an official tie is not a new l

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 54%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 46%.