Will JAXA successfully launch and separate MMX by November 7?

Question

This market will resolve YES if JAXA officially confirms that the Martian Moons eXploration spacecraft launched and separated successfully from its launch vehicle on the intended departure trajectory on or before November 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM Japan Standard Time.

The currently planned mission is MMX aboard H3 Launch Vehicle flight No.10 from the Yoshinobu Launch Complex at Tanegashima Space Center.

Liftoff alone is insufficient. JAXA must confirm spacecraft separation and a successful or substa

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 74%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 26%.