Will Arctic sea ice average less than 6 million km² in October 2026?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the Northern Hemisphere monthly sea-ice extent for October 2026 in NSIDC’s Sea Ice Index is strictly below 6.000 million square kilometres. Exactly 6.000 resolves NO. This measures the area of ocean meeting the dataset's sea-ice concentration criterion; it is not ice volume, ice thickness, Antarctic ice or the daily minimum in September.

Use the published northern monthly extent data for October, expressed in millions of square kilometres, with the numeric precis

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 72%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 28%.