Will the U.S. and Canada announce a tariff agreement before August 19, 2026?

Question

This market resolves YES if the governments of the United States and Canada publicly announce before August 19, 2026 a bilateral agreement that avoids, suspends, reduces or materially modifies the new U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods scheduled to take effect on August 19.

The agreement does not need to constitute a comprehensive new USMCA agreement or free-trade treaty.

A temporary negotiated agreement, tariff-relief package or bilateral arrangement qualifies if both governments acknowledge that

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 55%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 45%.