Will SpaceX complete more than 160 launches in 2026?

Question

This market resolves YES if SpaceX conducts at least 161 qualifying orbital launch attempts between 1 January and 31 December 2026.

A launch counts when a SpaceX-operated launch vehicle leaves its launch platform with the intention of reaching space. Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and qualifying Starship orbital flight attempts count. Static fires, subscale tests and launches operated entirely by other companies do not count.

The launch does not need to deploy its payload successfully once liftoff has

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 58%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 42%.