Will France report an economic contraction in its October 30 GDP release?

Question

This market will resolve YES if INSEE's first estimate for the third quarter of 2026 reports a strictly negative quarter-on-quarter change in French real gross domestic product, adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects. The scheduled publication is October 30 at 07:30 Paris time. A reported change of zero resolves NO. The question concerns whether output fell during July through September, not whether two consecutive quarters meet a separate definition of technical recession.

Use the headl

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 76%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 24%.