Will an EU country still have a storage-risk exemption for Russian pipeline gas on September 30?

Question

This market will resolve YES if at least one EU Member State has an effective European Commission storage-risk exemption under Article 4(2) of Regulation (EU) 2026/261 at 00:00 Europe/Brussels on September 30, 2027. The question concerns the specific legal relief allowing qualifying existing long-term Russian pipeline-gas contracts to continue until November 1, rather than the ordinary September 30 prohibition. It does not measure actual gas volumes, whether a ship arrives, or whether a governme

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 62%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 38%.