Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Question

This market resolves YES if, at any point from market creation through December 31, 2026, at least one AI model developed by OpenAI reaches the #1 overall position on the LMArena leaderboard used by the reference prediction market.

A tie for the #1 position qualifies as YES.

The model must be publicly identified as an OpenAI model. Reaching #1 on a specialized third-party benchmark, coding-only benchmark, mathematics benchmark, private evaluation, or another leaderboard does not independently

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 63%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 37%.