Will the ECB raise its deposit facility rate on February 4, 2027?

Question

This market resolves YES if the ECB Governing Council’s monetary policy decision on February 4, 2027 announces a deposit facility interest rate strictly higher than the rate applicable immediately before that decision. The announced effective date may fall after February 4; the announcement itself is the event being measured. A rise in the main refinancing or marginal lending rate without a deposit-rate rise does not qualify. Keeping the deposit rate unchanged, cutting it or merely signalling a

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 71%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 29%.