Will ESA’s Space Rider land successfully on its maiden orbital mission?

Question

This market will resolve YES if ESA confirms that Space Rider completes its maiden orbital flight with a controlled ground landing and recovery of the re-entry vehicle. A successful launch alone, reaching orbit, or completing only the microgravity experiments is insufficient.

The criterion is the spacecraft’s return, not a particular runway, exact landing minute or untouched cosmetic condition. A contingency landing counts if ESA describes the vehicle as safely recovered after a controlled land

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 72%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 28%.