Will a VEI 6+ volcanic eruption occur before December 30, 2026?

Question

This market resolves to YES if at least one natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or greater occurs anywhere in the world between market opening and December 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

Only natural volcanic eruptions qualify. Artificial explosions, nuclear tests, meteor impacts, industrial accidents or other non-volcanic events will not count.

The eruption must ultimately be classified as VEI 6, VEI 7 or VEI 8 by the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Pr

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 82%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 18%.