Will Nicolás Maduro get his U.S. criminal case dismissed on sovereign-immunity grounds following the November 17 hearing?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York grants a defense motion that dismisses all substantive federal criminal charges against Nicolás Maduro on the ground that sovereign, head-of-state or comparable governmental immunity prevents his prosecution in the United States, following the motion schedule culminating in the November 17, 2026 hearing.

The ruling may be issued at the November 17 hearing or subsequently.

A partial dismissal that leav

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 76%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 24%.