Will Axiom Mission 5 dock with the International Space Station on its first attempt?

Question

This market resolves YES if NASA confirms the Ax-5 spacecraft achieved hard capture with the ISS on the first docking approach that proceeds inside the keep-out sphere. An approach waved off before entering the keep-out sphere is not an attempt. A retreat after crossing that boundary means the first attempt failed even if a later attempt succeeds.

A qualifying action must be public, attributable to the named authority and operational rather than merely discussed. A press report, unnamed-source

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 72%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 28%.