Will El Niño’s relative index stay at or above 1°C in March–May 2027?

Question

This market will resolve YES if NOAA CPC reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) of at least +1.0°C for the overlapping March–April–May 2027 season, using the three-month mean for the Niño-3.4 region.

This tests whether the current event remains at least moderate into Northern Hemisphere spring. Use RONI as labelled by CPC, not the conventional ONI, a weekly Niño-3.4 anomaly, the eastern Pacific Niño-1+2 index or a forecast probability. It is the observed seasonal index, not whether NOAA r

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 66%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 34%.