Will Hakeem Jeffries win the first Speaker ballot of the 120th U.S. Congress?

Question

This market resolves YES if the Clerk of the U.S. House formally declares Hakeem Jeffries elected Speaker on the first completed roll-call ballot to choose a Speaker for the 120th Congress. Being the Democratic nominee, receiving the largest number of votes without election, or winning on a second ballot does not qualify. Use the House’s actual majority requirement based on votes cast for a person; do not assume that 218 is always necessary. A ballot adjourned without a completed count is not th

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 67%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 33%.