Will any candidate win Brazil's 2026 presidential election outright in the first round?

Question

This market resolves YES if any candidate is officially elected President of Brazil in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, scheduled for October 4, 2026.

Under Brazilian electoral law, a candidate wins the presidency in the first round by receiving an absolute majority of valid votes.

For purposes of this market, an absolute majority means more than 50% of all valid votes cast for presidential candidates, using the official calculation of Brazil's Tribunal Superior Ele

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 86%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 14%.