Will Sánchez’s PSOE fall below 30% in the October CIS vote estimate?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the PSOE’s nationwide vote estimate is strictly below 30.0% in the CIS monthly political barometer labelled October 2026.

Use the CIS estimated valid-vote percentage for the PSOE and the territorial affiliates grouped with it in the official table. Raw voting intention, vote-plus-sympathy, seat projections and the combined left bloc do not count. The published precision controls: 30.0% is NO and 29.9% is YES. The contract measures the CIS estimate, not whether an

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 63%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 37%.