Will the UN give its Western Sahara mission a shorter-than-one-year renewal this October?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the first Security Council resolution adopted after October 20, 2026 to renew MINURSO beyond its current October 31 expiry gives the mission a new expiry date earlier than October 31, 2027. There must be an actual extension beyond October 31, 2026: outright termination or failure to renew does not qualify.

The threshold compares the expiry dates, not the number of days between adoption and expiry. A six-month extension to April 30, 2027 qualifies. A full-year ext

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 70%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 30%.