Will Marlon James win the Booker Prize on November 9 with The Disappearers?

Question

This market resolves YES if The Disappearers by Marlon James is officially named a winner of the Booker Prize 2026 at the November 9 ceremony at Old Billingsgate in London. The book is on the announced longlist; reaching the September 22 shortlist is not by itself a YES outcome.

A shared Booker Prize naming this book as a co-winner qualifies. Winning the International Booker, a readers’ vote or a separate lifetime honour does not. If the official shortlist excludes the book and the rules provid

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 81%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 19%.