Will Arctic sea ice average less than 4 million km² in September 2027?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the National Snow and Ice Data Center reports a mean Arctic sea-ice extent strictly below 4.000 million square kilometres for September 2027 in its Sea Ice Index. The measured period is the complete calendar month, 1–30 September 2027. Exactly 4.000 million square kilometres resolves NO.

Use the Northern Hemisphere monthly mean extent, not Antarctic extent, the combined global total, ice volume or the area of the Arctic Ocean. A single exceptionally low day does

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 87%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 13%.