Will Saudi Aramco use another ship-to-ship crude transfer outside Hormuz by September 30, 2026?

Question

This market will resolve YES if, after September 4, 2026 and on or before September 30, 2026, a new ship-to-ship transfer involving Saudi-origin crude oil marketed, supplied or operationally arranged by Saudi Aramco is confirmed to have taken place outside the Strait of Hormuz.

A qualifying ship-to-ship transfer requires crude oil to be physically transferred from one vessel to another while both vessels are afloat. A simple change of ownership, charter, destination, bill of lading or commercia

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 68%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 32%.