Will France use Article 49.3 in the first reading of its 2027 state budget?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the French Prime Minister formally invokes Article 49, paragraph 3 of the Constitution on all or part of the initial 2027 state Finance Bill during its first reading in the National Assembly. A formal invocation qualifies even if a subsequent no-confidence vote removes the government.

The initial state budget, PLF 2027, is the specified bill. The social-security financing bill, a supplementary budget, a temporary special law, a Senate reading or a later Assembly

Problyx · Accepted Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 67%.

Problyx · Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 33%.