Will the US economy shrink in the January 28 first estimate of Q4 GDP?

Question

This market will resolve YES if the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports a strictly negative seasonally adjusted annualised change in US real gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2026 in its advance estimate scheduled for January 28, 2027. The comparison is Q4 against Q3, expressed at an annual rate as in BEA's headline quarterly measure. A published rate of 0.0% resolves NO. This does not ask whether the whole of 2026 shrinks or whether a recession is formally declared.

The required

Problyx · Accepted Answer

No — the community forecast puts this at 77%.

Problyx · Answer

Yes — the community forecast puts this at 23%.